The Fed is set to cut rates this year. Here are the Asian currencies that stand to benefit - CNBC
The Fed is set to cut rates this year. Here are the Asian currencies that stand to benefit - CNBC

The Federal Reserve plans to reduce interest rates in the coming year, potentially leading to positive outcomes for certain Asian currencies.

Credit and Loans

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Investing

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The Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rates on Asian Currencies

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later this year, and this could have a significant impact on Asian currencies. While a rate cut may not be good news for the dollar, some Asian currencies stand to benefit from the Fed’s decision.

Higher interest rates typically boost a country’s currency by attracting foreign investment and increasing demand for the country’s currency. A weak U.S. dollar is generally positive for emerging markets, and this is often the case when the Fed cuts interest rates outside of an economic crisis.

The Fed’s shift to a more dovish stance in December has led to markets pricing in rate cuts by summer. The CME FedWatch tool suggests that the first 25-basis-point rate cut in 2024 could happen as early as June.

Experts have suggested that currencies such as the Chinese yuan, the Korean won, and the Indian rupee stand to benefit from the Fed’s loosening monetary policy.

China has faced a series of disappointing headlines that have affected investor confidence. However, hopes that authorities would not allow the trade-reliant nation’s currency to weaken below a certain level have limited yuan pessimism.

China has taken steps to stabilize the yuan against the dollar in the past and is expected to continue doing so. While the exchange rate has weakened to a 7 handle on the USD/CNY rate, further weakening is unlikely as policymakers become more aggressive in fiscal stimulus, credit growth, and propping up property values.

Unlike other major currencies like the Japanese yen or U.S. dollar, which have free-floating exchange rates, China keeps strict control of the onshore yuan. The currency is pegged with a so-called daily midpoint fix to the greenback based on the yuan’s previous closing level and quotations taken from inter-bank dealers.

The Indian rupee could benefit from carry trades this year, a strategy where traders borrow low-yielding currencies such as the U.S. dollar to buy high-yielding assets like bonds. With interest rates falling in the U.S., the interest rate differential will widen to allow carry trade to happen, which is also positive for the Indian currency.

The Korean won has been under pressure for three years, but improving economic prospects and looser Fed policy will help ease that strain in 2024. As a low-yielding and highly cyclical currency, the Korean won stands to be one of the major beneficiaries of the Fed’s easing cycle in the second half of the year.

In conclusion, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates later this year is expected to have a significant impact on Asian currencies. While a rate cut may not be good news for the dollar, some Asian currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, the Korean won, and the Indian rupee, stand to benefit from the Fed’s decision. It is important for investors and policymakers to closely monitor these developments and take appropriate action to mitigate any potential risks.

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